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Economic

2:00PM Water Cooler 5/26/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Tune of the Day

Madagascar Lark, Ifaty – Salt Flats By Lodge, Madagascar. “Marine, Mudflat, Pond.” I feel the birders downrate for background noise, however I prefer it.

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“Oath Keepers Founder Stewart Rhodes Sentenced to 18 Years for Seditious Conspiracy” [Wall Street Journal]. “A federal decide sentenced Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes to 18 years in jail for plotting to forcefully stop the peaceable switch of presidential energy, capping the seditious-conspiracy case in opposition to the far-right group’s chief with the stiffest punishment so far stemming from the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol…. Earlier than issuing the sentence, [Judge] Mehta sided with the Justice Division’s request to use an enhanced terrorism penalty for Rhodes, saying the Oath Keepers chief had dedicated an offense in opposition to an ‘establishment of American democracy at its most vital second—the switch of energy.’” • That’s an important second?! Looks as if a harsh penalty for an FBI snitch, no?

Biden Administration

“The place the debt talks stand six days earlier than default deadline” [Politico]. “Republican negotiators entered Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s workplace on Friday with no conferences with the White Home presently on the books, although they are saying they’re in “fixed” communication. And whereas they maintain indicating the ball is shifting ahead, they’re not signaling that Friday would be the magic day they’ll clinch an settlement with the White Home — with a possible default simply six days away. Requested Friday morning if he thought they might shut out talks by the tip of the day, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), one of many GOP negotiators, threw up his arms in a shrug. ‘Right here we’re evening after evening after evening. And the stress is extra. And the results are higher. We acknowledge that. We all know this and the White Home certainly acknowledges this,’ he mentioned. There have been indications that Home Republicans and the White Home are making actual progress. The 2 sides have all however finalized the spending portion of discussions, a supply accustomed to the talks advised POLITICO late Thursday evening.” • The “spending portion” which means cuts. Particularly:

Nicely, I suppose which means all people is aware of nasal vaccines are sterilizing. And since that will destroy Large Pharma’s enterprise mannequin for Covid, and take away the revenues that intramuscular injection generates for ginormous hospital monopolies… Nicely, each cloud has a silver lining, doesn’t it?

2024

I suppose it’s time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

No purpose Trump’s polling lead is everlasting:

“Home Dems in No Labels-allied caucus are furious with No Labels” [Politico]. “A bunch of Home Democrats with ties to No Labels is popping on the centrist group after it attacked one in every of their founding members. On Tuesday, No Labels texted individuals who stay within the district of Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Sick.), criticizing the congressman for scoffing at their thought for a unity presidential ticket and claiming it may end in Donald Trump’s return to the presidency…. The missive didn’t go over properly with Schneider, who’s a member of the Downside Solvers Caucus that No Labels helped begin on the Hill. ‘No Labels’ assaults are the sort of division the nation wants much less of proper now, and it’s a betrayal of each average and each drawback solver in Congress,’ Schneider mentioned in an announcement to POLITICO. ‘I helped kind the Downside Solvers Caucus six years in the past to achieve throughout the aisle and discover widespread floor, to not abandon my ideas. I’m as dedicated at this time as I’ve all the time been to the ideas that replicate the values and priorities of my district, and to reaching throughout the aisle for the nice of our nation.’ Schneider was rapidly joined by different members of the Downside Solvers Caucus in chastising No Labels for attacking one in every of their very own and pushing a unity ticket.” • Lol. With a pleasant man like Joe Lieberman concerned, how did this ever occur?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. We are actually as much as 50/50 states (100%). That is actually nice! (It happens to me that there are makes use of to which this knowledge is likely to be put, past serving to folks with “private threat assessments” applicable to their state. For instance, pondering pessimistically, we’d keep the record and see which states go darkish and when. We’d additionally tabulate the properties of every website and search for variations and commonalities, for instance the usage of GIS (an train in Federalism). I don’t that CA stays just a little sketchy; it feels just a little odd that there’s no statewide website, however I’ve by no means been capable of finding one. Additionally, my working assumption was that every state would have one website. That’s turned out to not be true; see e.g. ID. Trivially, it means I must punctuate this record correctly. Much less trivially, there could also be extra native websites that needs to be added. NY metropolis in NY state springs to thoughts, however I’m positive there are others. FL additionally springs to thoughts as a particular case, as a result of DeSantis will likely be a Presidental candidate, and IIRC there was some foofra about their state dashboard. Thanks once more!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (9), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (5), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Search for the Helpers

They name me Mr. Optimism, however I actually really feel the tide is starting to shift, just because the official propaganda is so at odds with, as we are saying, “lived expertise”:

M

Maskstravaganza

I’m so previous I keep in mind when masking was going to be a “revered alternative.” That went the way in which of defending probably the most susceptible, didn’t it??

Useful recommendation:

Masking appears decrease than it’s:

Equally, the Covid-conscious are much less more likely to be seen in public areas. That doesn’t imply they don’t exist!

Sequelae

“Improvement of a Definition of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 An infection” [JAMA]. This is a gigantic research from the NIH RECOVER Consortium of “Lengthy Covid,” or “PASC” (postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 an infection) because the authors insist on calling it. N = 9764. From the Summary:

A definition of PASC was developed based mostly on signs in a potential cohort research. As a primary step to offering a framework for different investigations, iterative refinement that additional incorporates different scientific options is required to assist actionable definitions of PASC.

Sufferers with Lengthy Covid are recognized utilizing a weighted guidelines of signs:

(Word the typo: I don’t like typos, particularly in crucial tables, as a result of they’re an indication the content material wasn’t learn fastidiously by the journal.)

Evaluating the paper is above my paygrade; maybe certified readers will give the paper a glance. I do discover immune dysregulation doesn’t make the guidelines. Here’s a thread that summarizes the excessive factors:

Nevertheless, response within the Twittersphere — as with aerosol transmission and masking, Twitter has develop into important for Lengthy Covid activism — was not uniformly constructive. For instance, the weighting algorithm (“least absolute shrinkage and choice operator”):

Moreover lacking immune dysregulation, the algorithm additionally missed vascular results:

After which there’s the reductionism that can come from a guidelines:

After which there’s NYU:

Elite Maleficence

“The federal government giving up on COVID protections means throwing immunocompromised folks to the wolves” [Salon]. “The doctrine of the medical mannequin is so ingrained in our tradition that it shapes the way in which Individuals perceive the idea of well being. The medical mannequin focuses on stopping and treating particular person circumstances in particular person our bodies, fairly than correcting systemic components that have an effect on folks on the group degree. It’s a reductive method that ignores the social determinants and types of discrimination that form well being outcomes. It’s involved with correcting deviations from a regular outlined by the absence of illness and incapacity. Individualism — even when it’s billed as morality — can’t shield folks from an airborne, ever-mutating virus. This regular just isn’t impartial. In response to the medical mannequin and the ethical mannequin it advanced from, people who find themselves sick or disabled are irregular and “unhealthy“, missing each good well being and, presumably, good morals. The medical mannequin is the blueprint for a US healthcare system that income from the concern of this irregular. Our for-profit system provides band-aid options for particular person physique elements fairly than take care of the advanced, interdependent relationship between the sick and disabled physique and thoughts. American healthcare is the least efficient for these with the best wants, and that’s not simply an unlucky facet impact of the system– it’s the system.” • Extra stochastic eugenics.

The Jackpot

Phrase of the Day: “Decompensating”:

Boccara’s ebook — Psychosocial Evaluation of the Pandemic and of Its Aftermath: Hoping for a Magical Undoing — seems actually good; another goddamned ebook to learn (although I’m leery of something that smacks of idealism (i.e. not materialism)).

* * *

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson).

Case Information

From BioBot wastewater knowledge from Might 25:

Lambert right here: Until the USA is totally, er, distinctive, we needs to be seeing a rise right here quickly. UPDATE Nonetheless on the excessive plateau. Are we’re the purpose within the world pandemic the place nationwide experiences actually diverge?

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater knowledge as the most effective proxy for case knowledge (ignoring the scientific case knowledge portion of this chart, which for my part “goes unhealthy” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). At the least we will spot tendencies, and evaluate present ranges to equal previous ranges.

• “Covid numbers improve throughout Australia in alarming signal earlier than winter” [News.com]. “Over the previous seven days, 41,188 circumstances have been detected – a 7.7 per cent improve on the week prior – with 14,409 circumstances in NSW alone…. Specialists proceed to warn that the most effective defence in opposition to respiratory diseases is vaccination.” • Sigh…

Variants

From CDC, Might 27, 2023:

Lambert right here: XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.9.1 nonetheless on the way in which up, consuming into XBB.1.5. I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services lower by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform. Appears like the Walgreens variants web page isn’t updating.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, from Might 20:

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, Might 22:

-1.1%. Frequency all the way down to as soon as per week? UPDATE Apparently so!

Deaths

Loss of life price (Our World in Information), from Might 24:

Lambert right here: Zero deaths, for 3 days in a row. Not potential. Thanks, Johns Hopkins of the $9.32 billion endowment, for abandoning this knowledge feed and passing accountability on to the clown automobile at WHO.

Complete: 1,164,934 – 1,164,718 = 216 (216 * 365 = 78,840 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this specific tranche of demise and illness).

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED Extra deaths (The Economist), revealed Might 21:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran ceaselessly with an enormous typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually it, so I acquired rid it. )

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Sturdy Items Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured sturdy items rose by 1.1 % from a month earlier in April 2023, following an upwardly revised 3.3 % progress in March and simply beating market expectations of a 1.0 % decline.”

Private Spending: “United States Private Spending” [Trading Economics]. “Private spending in the USA jumped 0.8% mother in April of 2023, probably the most in three months, and properly above market forecasts of a 0.4% acquire, in an indication client spending stays sturdy, supported by increased wages and a good labour market.”

Private Earnings: “United States Private Earnings” [Trading Economics]. “Private earnings in the USA rose by 0.4% mother in April of 2023, in comparison with a 0.3% rise in March and matching market forecasts. It’s the highest acquire in three months, primarily reflecting will increase in compensation, specifically non-public wages and salaries and private earnings receipts on belongings, each private curiosity earnings and private dividend earnings.”

* * *

The Bezzle: “Whistleblower Drops 100 Gigabytes Of Tesla Secrets and techniques To German Information Web site: Report” [Jalopnik]. “The publication Handelsblatt acquired its fingers on the info by way of an unnamed informant. Handelsblatt confirmed the info’s authenticity with Fraunhofer Institute for Safe Data Know-how, which discovered no proof of doctoring or fabrication within the information. Tesla tried to cease the publication from utilizing this knowledge in its reporting and even threatened authorized motion in opposition to Handelsblatt. The publication, nevertheless, determined this was one of many extraordinary circumstances when reporting on such a knowledge breach can be authorized below European Union regulation.” From Handelsblatt: “The Tesla information comprise greater than 2,400 self-acceleration complaints and greater than 1,500 braking perform issues, together with 139 circumstances of unintentional emergency braking and 383 reported phantom stops ensuing from false collision warnings. The variety of crashes is greater than 1000. A desk of incidents involving driver help programs the place clients have expressed security issues has greater than 3000 entries.” Jalopnik: “All through the report, there’s a chorus acquainted to anybody who covers Tesla: ‘Tesla didn’t reply questions concerning the allegations from clients.’ .”

* * *

Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 62 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 68 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 26 at 1:15 PM ET.

The Conservatory

“Tina Turner Did Nothing Good And Straightforward” [The Defector]. “Violence was throughout Tina’s developmental years, from the violence she witnessed between her mother and father, to her abandonment by each of them over time, to her life with Ike. It was solely a newfound Buddhist religion within the Seventies that gave her the facility to ultimately stand as much as Ike and depart him after years of terror and a number of suicide makes an attempt. Her comeback within the ’80s was seen as one of many nice triumphs of expertise and fortitude—that she was in a position to develop into an even bigger star in her 40s than she’d ever been earlier than, in any case that she’d been by way of. But it surely didn’t erase any of the trauma she endured, and it definitely didn’t make it any simpler to always revisit that ache. When our most well-known and profitable don’t act grateful for the whole lot it tends to engender resentment. The success narratives constructed round artists like Michael and Janet Jackson or Whitney Houston nearly ascribe their expertise to the abuses they suffered, as if the ends justify the means, or that the 2 are even correlated. However life is messy and ugly and unfair, and cash and fame don’t magically erase it or make it simpler. Within the Tina documentary, she’s unabashedly open about the way it felt to be deserted by each of her mother and father, how afraid of Ike she was and the way violent he had been, how a lot of her life she spent by no means being liked or actually cared for by anybody, and the way badly all of it made her really feel. It’s not that persons are monsters on goal, it’s simply that we’re determined for function fashions and causes to imagine in happiness. We’re determined for real-life fairy tales. Tina’s story in all probability helped scores of ladies depart their abusive companions. She did symbolize a lightweight on the finish of many darkish tunnels. However she additionally couldn’t fake that the scars don’t linger, that the nightmares don’t persist. It was a part of what made her so daring and so genuine.” • I had no thought Turner was a Buddhist.

(Lyrics.)

Healthcare

“Causal proof that herpes zoster vaccination prevents a proportion of dementia circumstances” [medRxiv]. From a really fascinating pure experiment in Wales. Outcomes: “We then present that receiving the herpes zoster vaccine lowered the likelihood of a brand new dementia prognosis over a follow-up interval of seven years by 3.5 share factors (95% CI: 0.6 – 7.1, p=0.019), similar to a 19.9% relative discount within the prevalence of dementia. Moreover stopping shingles and dementia, the herpes zoster vaccine had no results on some other widespread causes of morbidity and mortality. In exploratory analyses, we discover that the protecting results from the vaccine for dementia are far stronger amongst girls than males. Randomized trials are wanted to find out the optimum inhabitants teams and time interval for administration of the herpes zoster vaccine to stop or delay dementia, in addition to to quantify the magnitude of the causal impact when extra exact measures of cognition are used. Our findings strongly recommend an vital function of the varicella zoster virus within the etiology of dementia.”

“A whole lot of Hundreds Have Misplaced Medicaid Protection Since Pandemic Protections Expired” [New York Times]. “As states start to drop folks from their Medicaid packages, early knowledge exhibits that many recipients are shedding their protection for procedural causes.” • Procedural causes = Complicated eligibility necessities and the PMC performing their gatekeeping function. Every part’s going in keeping with plan!

Class Warfare

“Immigrant workforce reaches a brand new excessive” [Axios]. “The share of foreign-born employees in the U.S. labor pressure reached a document excessive final 12 months, per new knowledge from the Labor Division. With extra Individuals getting old out of the workforce than coming into into it — and at a time of labor shortages — immigrants are taking part in an more and more essential function within the labor market. The share of foreign-born folks within the workforce has been steadily rising for many years, however dipped throughout the pandemic — making final 12 months’s uptick look a bit extra putting than it’s, mentioned Abraham Mosisa, a senior economist on the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonetheless, this can be a development that isn’t going wherever. The U.S. labor pressure participation price of native born males has been persistently reducing, he identified. And the speed for girls has stagnated. The variety of foreign-born employees within the U.S. elevated to 29.8 million in 2022, from 27.9 million the earlier 12 months — a soar of about 6%.” • That’s rather a lot.

“How We Reached Employees Whereas Reporting on Dairy Farm Circumstances” [ProPublica]. “[Pro Publica] additionally developed relationships with hosts at a number of of the Spanish-language radio stations throughout the state. They knew that dairy farm employees have lengthy hours and few days off. The radio exhibits function a public sq.. Employees get their information from the stations and name the hosts once they have been injured, gotten fired or had their wages withheld. Months earlier than the story on Jefferson, the boy who died, was revealed, Sanchez appeared on one DJ’s present and spoke for practically an hour in Spanish concerning the reporting she and Jameel have been hoping to do. The workforce additionally recognized companies in these rural communities that serve Spanish-speaking clients — the spots the place immigrants wire cash to their households, purchase groceries or do their laundry. They visited greater than 60 companies throughout the state and hung up flyers in search of sources.” • Odd that political events can’t do that….

Information of the Wired

“That folks produce HTML with string templates is telling us one thing” [Chris Siebenmann]. “One in all my elementary guidelines of system design is when folks maintain doing it improper, the persons are proper and your system or thought is improper. A corollary to that is that whenever you discover this taking place, a productive response is to begin asking questions on why folks do it the ‘improper’ manner.” • I can settle for the corallary, however I don’t know concerning the proposition. What concerning the (so-called) Semmelweis reflex?

* * *

Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SR:

SR writes: “Unknown stripey wetland dwellers. No thought what they’re. However the striation is marvelous.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

Should you hate PayPal, you possibly can e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on how one can ship a test. Thanks!

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